Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Prelim picks for the Dance on Thursday

So I'm in a hurry today, and since I don't have much time to post on the blog anymore as it is, here's some quick reads:

Upset city, baby:

No. 10 USC over No. 7 BC -- I didn't really like the Trojans for most of the season, but they looked good and were hot in the Pac-10 tournament. Taj Gibson will need to continue to be a stalwart on defense and DeMar DeRozan needs to produce in the frontcourt.

No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Marquette -- Utah State boasts some threatening outside shooters in Jared Quayle and Tyler Newbold. Have the WAC player of the year in redheaded Gary Wilkinson. Marquette hasn't been the same without floor general Dominic James.

Cinderellas:

No. 7 Clemson -- I have loved this team every time I see them play on TV. Trevor Booker is a double-double threat, and I have no problem saying he can bang inside in a potential second round matchup with Oklahoma's Blake Griffin. K.C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby form a competent and veteran backcourt. This team usually underachieves in the tourney, but look out this year.

No. 5 Florida State -- Nobody scores in double figures except for 21-point per game guy Toney Douglas, but this team has all the tools to go deep in the tourney: go-to-player, good balance on offense (68+ ppg) and solid depth in the front court. Plus, they have one of the best athlete graduation rates of teams in the tourney.


The faves:

North Carolina -- experienced team, and with reigning POY Tyler Hansbrough -- who has been somewhat under the radar, always in contention. Ty Lawson's injury looms large.

Louisville -- I think Terrence Williams (from Seattle) is the next big thing at the next level. But they don't have a dominant player inside (Samardo Samuels, Earl Clark are more role players) and they can't consistently put points on the board. I still like them for a Final Four pick.

Dark horses:

Wake Forest -- have some freaks offensively (James Johnson, Al-Farouq Aminu), and sophomore point guard Jeff Teague can make the big plays leading his team.

Gonzaga -- yeah, yeah, a cop out/hometown pick -- but I like the experience Josh Heytvelt, Jeremy Pargo and Matt Bouldin have leading this team. If they can get to the second weekend against potential opponent North Carolina, watch out.

The verdict:

All Big East final -- Connecticut snips down the nets over Pittsburgh in the final -- too much depth for the Huskies, and Hasheem Thabeet must stay out of foul trouble and patrol the lane -- but I'll go with 82-73 to end it for the team from Storrs.

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