Prelim picks for the Dance on Thursday

So I'm in a hurry today, and since I don't have much time to post on the blog anymore as it is, here's some quick reads:

Upset city, baby:

No. 10 USC over No. 7 BC -- I didn't really like the Trojans for most of the season, but they looked good and were hot in the Pac-10 tournament. Taj Gibson will need to continue to be a stalwart on defense and DeMar DeRozan needs to produce in the frontcourt.

No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Marquette -- Utah State boasts some threatening outside shooters in Jared Quayle and Tyler Newbold. Have the WAC player of the year in redheaded Gary Wilkinson. Marquette hasn't been the same without floor general Dominic James.

Cinderellas:

No. 7 Clemson -- I have loved this team every time I see them play on TV. Trevor Booker is a double-double threat, and I have no problem saying he can bang inside in a potential second round matchup with Oklahoma's Blake Griffin. K.C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby form a competent and veteran backcourt. This team usually underachieves in the tourney, but look out this year.

No. 5 Florida State -- Nobody scores in double figures except for 21-point per game guy Toney Douglas, but this team has all the tools to go deep in the tourney: go-to-player, good balance on offense (68+ ppg) and solid depth in the front court. Plus, they have one of the best athlete graduation rates of teams in the tourney.


The faves:

North Carolina -- experienced team, and with reigning POY Tyler Hansbrough -- who has been somewhat under the radar, always in contention. Ty Lawson's injury looms large.

Louisville -- I think Terrence Williams (from Seattle) is the next big thing at the next level. But they don't have a dominant player inside (Samardo Samuels, Earl Clark are more role players) and they can't consistently put points on the board. I still like them for a Final Four pick.

Dark horses:

Wake Forest -- have some freaks offensively (James Johnson, Al-Farouq Aminu), and sophomore point guard Jeff Teague can make the big plays leading his team.

Gonzaga -- yeah, yeah, a cop out/hometown pick -- but I like the experience Josh Heytvelt, Jeremy Pargo and Matt Bouldin have leading this team. If they can get to the second weekend against potential opponent North Carolina, watch out.

The verdict:

All Big East final -- Connecticut snips down the nets over Pittsburgh in the final -- too much depth for the Huskies, and Hasheem Thabeet must stay out of foul trouble and patrol the lane -- but I'll go with 82-73 to end it for the team from Storrs.

Double bubble

Who's on the bubble that should be in?

Here's my take:

South Carolina -- 10-6 in the weak SEC isn't all that impressive, and their nonconference slate is a tad weak. Beat #20 Baylor at the time, and kept it close with Clemson -- who bowed out of ACC tourney early. But did finish with 21-8 record, have Devan Downey as a playmaker who can get them to SEC title game.

Saint Mary's -- playing last half of conference schedule without leading scorer and favorite foreigner Patty Mills hurt -- making up 17 points a game was tough. Recovered to make a 6-game winning run before falling to Gonzaga in WCC finals. 25-6 record should be good enough to get them in the tournament, where they could make some noise against a team without a big man inside.

Baylor -- This team looks like a 2009 version of Georgia to me. Nineteen wins to 13 losses is pretty solid, but underachieved at 5-11 in Big 12 play. Could rely on Curtis Jerrells, LaceDarius Dunn and Kevin Rogers to get them into tournament -- have five guys that average double figures. If they can lock down on defense and hit their 3's, team has a chance to win in the next round against Texas. I like them to get to the conference title game, where they'll likely have to stop Blake Griffin to get into the Big Dance.

More on the bubbles popping and rising as we get later into the week.